If you were hoping for a peaceful Thanksgiving week with easy travel and no surprises, you’re getting most of it with a little atmospheric plot twist waiting in the wings.

Western Colorado stays warm and mostly quiet through the holiday, but the weekend? That’s where things get interesting.

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Thanksgiving: Warm, Calm, and Almost Suspiciously Pleasant

Northwest flow is locked in over Colorado today and tomorrow, dragging in warmer air and keeping things pretty tame.

A fading plume of moisture clips us today, but it’s so weak that the mountains may see only spotty “snow showers” in the most generous sense of the phrase, with no impacts expected.

Temperatures run near or slightly above normal today, then bump up another couple of degrees on Thanksgiving. Partly cloudy skies, mild air, and dry conditions? Not a bad deal for November.

Friday: Still Quiet… But the Pattern Shifts

Friday stays warm, around five to 10 degrees above normal, but the atmosphere starts turning the page. A wave drops southeast out of the Pacific Northwest late Friday night, clipping the northern half of Colorado and dragging colder air with it.

Precipitation stays confined above 9,000 feet due to limited moisture, but mountains could pick up an inch or two of snow by Saturday morning.

The Weekend: Travel Could Get Messy

After a brief break on Saturday, a second wave drops in late Saturday into Sunday, and this one’s the wildcard.

Models are finally starting to agree on timing and placement, and that agreement says travel Sunday afternoon through Monday could get touchy, especially over the passes.

Read More: Here’s How to Find the Perfect Christmas Tree on the Grand Mesa

Even a few inches at high elevations can turn holiday travel into a slow-moving parade of brake lights.

Probabilistic guidance shows a 40 to 50% chance of minor impacts and a 10 to 20% shot at moderate ones.

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