Is Fox the Goat? Survey of the Day

If you were watching the Bronco’s game on Saturday and scratching your head when future hall of fame quarterback  Peyton Manning took a knee with 31 seconds to play in a tie game with two time outs in his back pocket rather than trying to get his team in field goal range for a game-winning field goal, you are not alone. I was scratching my head so hard, it’s STILL sore. The Broncos paid Manning about $18 million this year to get the orange and blue to the Super Bowl -not to take a knee with a playoff game on the line. Nobody in NFL history has more 4th quarter comebacks than Peyton Manning. Yet, Broncos coach John Fox somehow thought he had a better chance to win by sending his defense, with its shredded secondary into overtime against a Ravens team who had just risen from the brink of playoff death to re-energized hope and life after scoring a last-minute touchdown to tie the game. Common sense would seem to suggest the Broncos put the ball into the capable hands of Manning. Even history would suggest the Broncos should at least try to get into position for a game winning field goal, even though Coach Fox suggested he was playing the odds. Maybe  Foxy should check the numbers.

Keith Goldner of Advance NFL Stats ran the numbers on NFL drives that have started under similar circumstances since 2000. Out of 21 drives, only one resulted in a game-ending turnover. Seven of the drives ended with a field goal attempt, while 13 of the drives resulted in no score or field goal attempt.  Simply, put, in 20 of the 21 situations, nothing bad happened.According to the numbers, the chances that the team will score and win the game are not very good. But it’s even less likely that there will be a turnover in that situation. Historically, the chances are far greater that the team will at least get a field goal attempt than they are that something bad will happen like a turnover. Meanwhile, the odds of winning, or at least getting a game winning field goal attempt slide all the way to zero when you take a knee. You have given your team NO chance to pull it out, and you have displayed zero confidence in your quarterback and your offense.

Coach Fox has said that if he had it to do over, he’d do it the exact same way 10 times out of 10. If that’s really true, we might as well get rid of Peyton Manning right now and save the millions of dollars we are paying him to get us to the big game. Yes, there were plenty of other plays we could point to and say..."if only". But, if we are going to play not-to-lose, we might as well bring back Tim Tebow and let him take the knee. It would be a lot cheaper,and our expectations would be a whole lot lower. With Coach Fox at the controls, my expectations have already taken a nose dive.