Did Punxsutawney Phil Get It Wrong?

It seems like every January we look forward to February 2. Ground Hog Day. Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow, giving us six more weeks of winter, or as the legend goes, will we get an early spring. I have been wondering just how accurate Phil the Ground Hog is, and so I did a little research. The results are certainly interesting.

Last year, Punxsutawney Phil, saw his shadow. This year he didn't. "Early Spring!", we all cheered.

Not so fast.

I compared weather data from 2012 and 2013 in the 40 days following Phil's appearance and subsequent weather forecast. This year, we were supposed to get an early Spring. But in the first 40 days following Ground Hog Day in Grand Junction, 33 of those days have been colder than the corresponding day a year ago. Last year in that period, we had just 3 days that were below 40 degrees. In 2013 there have been 12. Spring did not come early in Western Colorado.

It looks like Phil has gotten it wrong the last two  years, but we shouldn't be surprised. According to the StormFax Weather Almanac, Phil has predicted an early spring 16 times since 1887. He's been wrong 61% of the time. Maybe Phil should just stick to doing what ground hogs do. Whatever that is.

Having said that, the weather is warming, spring is less than a week away, and Ground Hog Day is but  a distant memory. Spring may not have come early, but at least it's on time.